Mexico_state Results

combine estimates

Stacking Estimate (95% CI) SC Estimate (95% CI) Time trend Estimate (95% CI) Time trend (no offset) Estimate (95% CI) STL+PCA Estimate (95% CI)
9_1 0.43 (0.19, 0.99) 0.69 (0.41, 1.14) 0.38 (0.19, 0.77) 0.39 (0.19, 0.8) 0.49 (0.23, 0.96)
9_10 1.39 (0.61, 5.9) 0.76 (0.57, 1.11) 0.35 (0.19, 0.64) 0.49 (0.29, 0.84) 2.41 (0.89, 6.74)
9_11 0.88 (0.69, 1.63) 0.87 (0.68, 1.11) 1.27 (0.84, 1.96) 1.31 (0.8, 2.1) 0.98 (0.64, 1.52)
9_12 0.7 (0.47, 0.87) 0.7 (0.47, 0.87) 0.61 (0.33, 1.03) 0.75 (0.42, 1.33) 0.18 (0.06, 0.5)
9_13 0.14 (0.05, 0.84) 0.63 (0.33, 1.29) 0.42 (0.2, 0.87) 0.52 (0.25, 1.16) 0.13 (0.05, 0.35)
9_14 0.73 (0.42, 1.55) 1.2 (0.88, 1.7) 0.86 (0.56, 1.31) 0.91 (0.56, 1.45) 0.62 (0.4, 0.99)
9_15 0.72 (0.07, 0.86) 0.72 (0.62, 0.86) 1.19 (0.69, 2.09) 1.45 (0.84, 2.42) 0.08 (0.03, 0.2)
9_16 1.07 (0.18, 1.24) 1.09 (0.83, 1.27) 0.68 (0.42, 1.12) 0.76 (0.44, 1.29) 0.24 (0.13, 0.46)
9_17 0.73 (0.55, 1.86) 0.72 (0.55, 0.95) 1.41 (0.66, 2.97) 1.45 (0.68, 3.16) 0.31 (0.11, 0.86)
9_19 0.73 (0.57, 1.16) 0.71 (0.57, 1) 0.74 (0.46, 1.17) 0.63 (0.42, 0.94) 0.88 (0.6, 1.31)
9_2 1.03 (0.73, 2.14) 0.97 (0.72, 1.31) 1.35 (0.73, 2.55) 1.39 (0.77, 2.49) 0.95 (0.56, 1.57)
9_20 0.95 (0.59, 1.2) 0.95 (0.59, 1.2) 0.91 (0.5, 1.66) 1.14 (0.59, 2.02) 0.71 (0.39, 1.28)
9_21 0.84 (0.7, 1) 0.84 (0.7, 1) 0.86 (0.47, 1.5) 0.53 (0.3, 0.92) 0.67 (0.51, 0.88)
9_22 0.68 (0.41, 1.12) 0.65 (0.44, 0.84) 0.62 (0.38, 1.01) 0.68 (0.41, 1.11) 0.56 (0.37, 0.84)
9_23 1.11 (0.72, 1.53) 1.14 (0.86, 1.53) 0.61 (0.27, 1.4) 0.85 (0.41, 1.77) 0.96 (0.6, 1.5)
9_24 0.53 (0.3, 0.88) 0.67 (0.4, 0.95) 0.73 (0.45, 1.18) 0.72 (0.43, 1.19) 0.43 (0.28, 0.65)
9_25 0.88 (0.62, 1.73) 0.86 (0.62, 1.22) 1.86 (0.92, 3.71) 1.4 (0.71, 2.79) 0.84 (0.44, 1.52)
9_26 0.8 (0.54, 2.34) 0.77 (0.52, 1.04) 1.25 (0.7, 2.22) 1.65 (0.99, 2.83) 2.59 (0.7, 8.93)
9_27 1.29 (0.66, 1.52) 1.31 (1.09, 1.53) 0.66 (0.38, 1.16) 0.7 (0.41, 1.22) 0.77 (0.52, 1.09)
9_28 1.15 (0.76, 1.69) 1.13 (0.76, 1.51) 1.42 (0.89, 2.28) 1.45 (0.91, 2.35) 1.48 (0.92, 2.31)
9_29 0.82 (0.43, 1.41) 0.84 (0.53, 1.41) 0.69 (0.3, 1.6) 0.71 (0.33, 1.62) 0.62 (0.27, 1.42)
9_30 0.83 (0.66, 1) 0.83 (0.7, 1) 0.65 (0.36, 1.14) 0.59 (0.32, 0.97) 0.56 (0.33, 0.91)
9_31 1.05 (0.56, 2.26) 1.03 (0.47, 1.7) 1.31 (0.65, 2.66) 1.15 (0.55, 2.4) 0.91 (0.59, 1.42)
9_32 1.06 (0.81, 1.34) 1.06 (0.81, 1.34) 1.03 (0.51, 2.01) 1.14 (0.65, 2.01) 1 (0.74, 1.35)
9_4 0.87 (0.72, 1.03) 0.87 (0.72, 1.04) 1.1 (0.56, 2.08) 0.73 (0.37, 1.39) 0.88 (0.68, 1.11)
9_5 0.84 (0.34, 1.71) 0.79 (0.46, 1.45) 0.73 (0.39, 1.35) 0.97 (0.53, 1.83) 0.58 (0.27, 1.19)
9_7 0.93 (0.72, 1.16) 0.94 (0.76, 1.16) 1.02 (0.62, 1.65) 0.6 (0.37, 0.99) 0.78 (0.6, 1.01)
9_8 0.85 (0.64, 1.19) 0.98 (0.75, 1.26) 0.93 (0.58, 1.51) 0.31 (0.19, 0.49) 0.79 (0.62, 0.99)
9_9 1.04 (0.86, 1.19) 1.05 (0.92, 1.19) 0.92 (0.53, 1.55) 0.81 (0.46, 1.37) 0.96 (0.78, 1.17)

Plot of Rate ratios, with size proportional to cross validation weights

Weights for each of the models from cross validation

groups Synthetic Controls Time trend Time trend (no offset) STL+PCA
9_1 0.211 0.084 0.705 0.000
9_10 0.426 0.000 0.000 0.574
9_11 0.869 0.000 0.131 0.000
9_12 1.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
9_13 0.132 0.000 0.000 0.868
9_14 0.343 0.000 0.000 0.656
9_15 0.931 0.000 0.000 0.069
9_16 0.832 0.000 0.000 0.168
9_17 0.899 0.000 0.101 0.000
9_19 0.766 0.000 0.000 0.234
9_2 0.684 0.213 0.103 0.000
9_20 1.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
9_21 1.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
9_22 0.000 0.000 1.000 0.000
9_23 0.772 0.000 0.000 0.227
9_24 0.485 0.000 0.000 0.515
9_25 0.912 0.000 0.088 0.000
9_26 0.783 0.000 0.217 0.000
9_27 0.888 0.000 0.000 0.112
9_28 0.913 0.073 0.014 0.000
9_29 0.865 0.000 0.000 0.135
9_30 0.967 0.033 0.000 0.000
9_31 0.000 0.053 0.639 0.307
9_32 0.940 0.000 0.000 0.060
9_4 0.980 0.000 0.000 0.020
9_5 0.000 0.000 0.667 0.333
9_7 0.931 0.000 0.000 0.069
9_8 0.392 0.000 0.000 0.608
9_9 0.835 0.000 0.000 0.165

Inclusion Probabilities

Group Greatest Inclusion Variable Greatest Inclusion Probability Second Greatest Inclusion Variable Second Greatest Inclusion Probability Third Greatest Inclusion Variable Third Greatest Inclusion Probability
9_1 cJ20_J22 0.7655483 ach_noj 0.6064675 P00_99 0.4379648
9_10 cJ20_J22 0.9795016 ach_noj 0.5660773 P00_99 0.4823968
9_11 cJ20_J22 0.9999999 Q00_99 0.1295825 P00_99 0.1171074
9_12 cJ20_J22 1.0000000 P00_99 0.2064375 ach_noj 0.1872343
9_13 P05_07 0.9318387 ach_noj 0.6725342 P00_99 0.5704825
9_14 cJ20_J22 0.9925598 ach_noj 0.6178656 E00_99 0.4743133
9_15 cJ20_J22 1.0000000 E00_99 0.9998352 G00_99_SY 0.1369822
9_16 cJ20_J22 1.0000000 P05_07 0.1486998 P00_99 0.1079951
9_17 cJ20_J22 1.0000000 P05_07 0.2646595 ach_noj 0.1985708
9_19 cJ20_J22 0.9883752 P05_07 0.6305967 P00_99 0.3523263
9_2 Q00_99 0.5916176 ach_noj 0.2900147 P00_99 0.2790952
9_20 cJ20_J22 1.0000000 Q00_99 0.2752296 ach_noj 0.2654574
9_21 cJ20_J22 1.0000000 P00_99 0.1705452 ach_noj 0.1474654
9_22 ach_noj 0.4813653 P00_99 0.3399560 Q00_99 0.1740184
9_23 ach_noj 0.2724859 P00_99 0.2615780 P05_07 0.1684124
9_24 cJ20_J22 0.9999712 P00_99 0.4951121 Q00_99 0.3923868
9_25 cJ20_J22 0.9999999 ach_noj 0.4198198 P00_99 0.3578358
9_26 cJ20_J22 1.0000000 K00_99 0.3198627 P05_07 0.2362395
9_27 cJ20_J22 1.0000000 P05_07 0.2767126 P00_99 0.1314701
9_28 cJ20_J22 1.0000000 P00_99 0.9537649 P05_07 0.2200955
9_29 cJ20_J22 1.0000000 P00_99 0.9243239 ach_noj 0.4030420
9_30 cJ20_J22 1.0000000 K00_99 0.2140642 P05_07 0.1055968
9_31 Q00_99 0.5495885 ach_noj 0.4282197 P00_99 0.3818798
9_32 cJ20_J22 0.3179578 P00_99 0.1563514 ach_noj 0.1364429
9_4 cJ20_J22 1.0000000 ach_noj 0.4584642 P00_99 0.3219748
9_5 ach_noj 0.8684267 cJ20_J22 0.7645842 P00_99 0.3036374
9_7 cJ20_J22 0.9999996 P00_99 0.4402435 P05_07 0.3736916
9_8 cJ20_J22 0.9999961 ach_noj 0.4855742 P00_99 0.4773153
9_9 cJ20_J22 1.0000000 A10_B99_nopneumo 0.9183025 Z00_99 0.6738762

Weight Sensitivity Analysis

Estimate (95% CI) Top Control 1 Inclusion Probability of Control 1 Control 1 Estimate (95% CI) Top Control 2 Inclusion Probability of Control 2 Control 2 Estimate (95% CI) Top Control 3 Inclusion Probability of Control 3 Control 3 Estimate (95% CI)
9_1 0.69 (0.41, 1.14) cJ20_J22 0.77 0.67 (0.38, 1.25) ach_noj 0.61 0.75 (0.43, 1.35) P00_99 0.44 0.77 (0.46, 1.3)
9_10 0.76 (0.57, 1.11) cJ20_J22 0.98 0.87 (0.67, 1.31) ach_noj 0.57 0.84 (0.66, 1.13) P00_99 0.48 0.85 (0.67, 1.12)
9_11 0.87 (0.68, 1.11) cJ20_J22 1 1.16 (0.78, 1.46) Q00_99 0.13 1.18 (0.84, 1.45) P00_99 0.12 1.18 (0.81, 1.45)
9_12 0.7 (0.47, 0.87) cJ20_J22 1 0.69 (0.37, 0.97) P00_99 0.21 0.72 (0.39, 0.98) ach_noj 0.19 0.79 (0.58, 1.04)
9_13 0.63 (0.33, 1.29) P05_07 0.93 0.79 (0.37, 1.53) ach_noj 0.67 0.78 (0.33, 1.49) P00_99 0.57 1.15 (0.7, 1.62)
9_14 1.2 (0.88, 1.7) cJ20_J22 0.99 1.11 (0.77, 1.6) ach_noj 0.62 1.12 (0.76, 1.69) E00_99 0.47 1.07 (0.72, 1.6)
9_15 0.72 (0.62, 0.86) cJ20_J22 1 0.97 (0.71, 1.89) E00_99 1 0.91 (0.67, 1.79) G00_99_SY 0.14 1.13 (0.68, 2)
9_16 1.09 (0.83, 1.27) cJ20_J22 1 0.69 (0.4, 1.27) P05_07 0.15 0.72 (0.44, 1.28) P00_99 0.11 0.71 (0.44, 1.32)
9_17 0.72 (0.55, 0.95) cJ20_J22 1 0.7 (0.49, 1.03) P05_07 0.26 0.68 (0.49, 0.98) ach_noj 0.2 0.68 (0.49, 0.91)
9_19 0.71 (0.57, 1) cJ20_J22 0.99 0.81 (0.65, 1.18) P05_07 0.63 0.76 (0.63, 0.96) P00_99 0.35 0.75 (0.63, 0.88)
9_2 0.97 (0.72, 1.31) Q00_99 0.59 1.03 (0.78, 1.34) ach_noj 0.29 1.03 (0.8, 1.31) P00_99 0.28 1.02 (0.81, 1.26)
9_20 0.95 (0.59, 1.2) cJ20_J22 1 0.79 (0.39, 1.52) Q00_99 0.28 0.8 (0.45, 1.5) ach_noj 0.27 0.87 (0.5, 1.56)
9_21 0.84 (0.7, 1) cJ20_J22 1 0.82 (0.62, 1.07) P00_99 0.17 0.86 (0.64, 1.1) ach_noj 0.15 0.91 (0.69, 1.15)
9_22 0.65 (0.44, 0.84) ach_noj 0.48 0.68 (0.49, 0.84) P00_99 0.34 0.69 (0.55, 0.83) Q00_99 0.17 0.7 (0.58, 0.83)
9_24 0.67 (0.4, 0.95) cJ20_J22 1 0.83 (0.47, 1.28) P00_99 0.5 0.92 (0.59, 1.3) Q00_99 0.39 0.82 (0.56, 1.24)
9_25 0.86 (0.62, 1.22) cJ20_J22 1 1.05 (0.75, 1.46) ach_noj 0.42 1.04 (0.76, 1.42) P00_99 0.36 1.05 (0.79, 1.39)
9_26 0.77 (0.52, 1.04) cJ20_J22 1 0.79 (0.51, 1.44) K00_99 0.32 0.78 (0.49, 1.3) P05_07 0.24 0.8 (0.51, 1.64)
9_27 1.31 (1.09, 1.53) cJ20_J22 1 1.07 (0.76, 1.37) P05_07 0.28 1.08 (0.77, 1.37) P00_99 0.13 1.12 (0.9, 1.4)
9_28 1.13 (0.76, 1.51) cJ20_J22 1 0.77 (0.57, 1.24) P00_99 0.95 0.72 (0.57, 0.96) P05_07 0.22 0.71 (0.56, 0.9)
9_29 0.84 (0.53, 1.41) cJ20_J22 1 0.81 (0.49, 1.7) P00_99 0.92 0.69 (0.46, 1.37) ach_noj 0.4 0.65 (0.44, 0.92)
9_30 0.83 (0.7, 1) cJ20_J22 1 0.88 (0.56, 1.16) K00_99 0.21 0.88 (0.54, 1.18) P05_07 0.11 0.86 (0.52, 1.13)
9_31 1.03 (0.47, 1.7) Q00_99 0.55 1 (0.4, 1.53) ach_noj 0.43 1.12 (0.74, 1.52) P00_99 0.38 1.14 (0.77, 1.59)
9_32 1.06 (0.81, 1.34) cJ20_J22 0.32 1.08 (0.84, 1.35) P00_99 0.16 1.1 (0.85, 1.37) ach_noj 0.14 1.12 (0.89, 1.38)
9_4 0.87 (0.72, 1.04) cJ20_J22 1 0.92 (0.71, 1.15) ach_noj 0.46 0.93 (0.73, 1.17) P00_99 0.32 0.95 (0.74, 1.19)
9_5 0.79 (0.46, 1.45) ach_noj 0.87 1.06 (0.45, 1.66) cJ20_J22 0.76 1.21 (0.48, 1.79) P00_99 0.3 1.36 (0.95, 1.78)
9_7 0.94 (0.76, 1.16) cJ20_J22 1 1 (0.77, 1.32) P00_99 0.44 1.01 (0.78, 1.32) P05_07 0.37 0.96 (0.77, 1.21)
9_8 0.98 (0.75, 1.26) cJ20_J22 1 0.9 (0.64, 1.25) ach_noj 0.49 0.83 (0.61, 1.14) P00_99 0.48 1.1 (0.82, 1.45)
9_9 1.05 (0.92, 1.19) cJ20_J22 1 1.14 (0.95, 1.36) A10_B99_nopneumo 0.92 1.16 (0.96, 1.39) Z00_99 0.67 1.11 (0.9, 1.38)

Plots

9_1

9_10

9_11

9_12

9_13

9_14

9_15

9_16

9_17

9_19

9_2

9_20

9_21

9_22

9_23

NULL

9_24

9_25

9_26

9_27

9_28

9_29

9_30

9_31

9_32

9_4

9_5

9_7

9_8

9_9